Two important events are about to happen here. One will take place on December 18, when Rwandans vote in a referendum on constitutional changes, among them provisions on presidential terms. Unless a catastrophe of unimaginable magnitude strikes, the amended constitution is expected to receive overwhelming approval.

The other will follow the referendum. President Paul Kagame is expected to tell Rwandans whether he will accept their pleas and offer himself for re-election in 2017. The expectation is that he will. As he has said in the past, he listens, especially to ordinary people, and will certainly respond to their prayers. They are, after all, the ones who asked for the change in the constitution. The elite probably want him to go so that they can have their chance at the top job.

Other things will inevitably follow. There will be denunciations and warnings. Some will say: there we go again; a way has been paved for another strong man to cling to power. Others will lament the tighter closure of political space. Or they will say that President Kagame is in danger of undoing the good work that he has done, as if they really care.

I think there is insincerity in all this. Also, it is simplistic. This is why.

Every epoch has produced exceptional leaders who have influenced the course of history of their countries and in some cases the whole of humankind in profound ways. Often, only those directly affected know the worth and impact of such leaders and show their admiration in different ways. For instance, they give them names to reflect their role or personality and express their affection. And so Julius Nyerere was popularly known as Mwalimu and Nelson Mandela was fondly addressed as Madiba.

It is also true that during their time they are not necessarily universally admired, whether out of ignorance, spite or simply the refusal to accept a fact. Those that disapprove of some leaders also find a label which they conveniently tag on them, usually designed to create disaffection or even loathing. ‘Strong man’, ‘autocrat’, ‘authoritarian’ and similar appellations fall in this category.

Clearly, the object of admiration or denigration is the quality of leadership. And so the discussion should be about what kind of leadership a country needs in order to move it forward, or in almost every case, to leapfrog into the future.

For that you need effective, competent leaders with a vision, not inept, clueless bunglers. These are the sort that transform societies, leave behind lasting legacies and create enduring institutions.

If this is what is meant by strong men, then let’s have them in their hundreds. Let everyone of our leaders be a strong man. We will then be proud of the label and proclaim it from the rooftops. That is a defendable strong man (even they need defenders – the sort I am talking about).

History, being more dispassionate and a better judge, and not dependent on sound bite, knows this. It recognises merit, records legacy and accords leaders their due place. That is why the most successful African leaders in history are not the classic strong man type – brutal, forbidding, murderous – but the strong ones in a totally different sense.

Take for instance Mwalimu Julius Nyerere. He was strong in the sense we are talking about here. His strength lay in the clarity of his vision, sense of mission and power of his convictions. He had the ability to mobilize fellow citizens, other Africans and indeed other people from across the world by force of logic and moral argument. With these he was able to build a Tanzanian nation and identity that endures and contribute immensely to Africa’s liberation.

In our own time, the late Ethiopian Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, has done for his country what was deemed impossible barely two decades ago. He transformed Ethiopia from a backward feudal set up to a country on the threshold of industrial take-off. He turned a famine-ravaged country completely dependent on relief hand-outs to one with a modern agricultural system, able to feed its people. Ethiopia is now one of the strongest and most stable countries on the continent.

Our very own Paul Kagame is doing similar things for Rwanda. A country that was all but destroyed by genocide has been rebuilt to a level where it ranks among the world’s most competitive countries in different spheres. Poverty that was once endemic is being fought with the ferocity of a battle for the survival of the species. A new identity of Rwandanness has replaced an ideology of division and discrimination. All in the space of less than twenty years.

The argument about the causes of Africa’s problems should therefore be framed differently. They have not been caused by strong men, but by weak, incapable and incompetent men masquerading as strong men; men who rely on brute force.

On the other hand, it has been shown that Africa’s transformation will come from leaders – men and women – with the right ideas and vision, strong convictions, the right plans to execute them and tenacity to see them through. These are the special people every epoch needs and produces. We should celebrate them. 

jorwagatare@yahoo.co.uk