The Rwanda Meteorology Agency (RMA) has asked government departments in charge of disaster management to prepare for above normal rains with El Niño expected to start next month.

The ministries of Disaster Management and Refugee Affairs; Local Government; Defence; Agriculture; and Health should immediately reexamine their contingency plans as the country’s western half is set to have above normal rainfall (more than 430mm) between September and December, according to officials.

Western, Southern and Northern provinces will be most hit.

In what is predicted to be the worst El Niño phenomenon hitting East Africa in five decades, Eastern Province and the City of Kigali will also have near normal rainfall with tendencies to above normal rainfall in few places.

"Authorities responsible for infrastructure and other vulnerable institutions should put in place both preventive and mitigative strategies to minimise loss of life and property,” Didas Musoni, the RMA’s head of climate data division, said during a forum on national climate outlook in Kigali yesterday.

El Niño is a Pacific-wide phenomenon that has had global consequences. Scientists predict that the phenomenon will be particularly severe this year.

Musoni said the highest impact is most likely to be first felt in mid October.

He said floods and landslides, reduced agricultural activity in some areas, damage to infrastructure like roads, and increased cases of water borne diseases could be seen in various parts of the country.

The national climate outlook comes after regional and national climate scientists converged in Nairobi, Kenya, at the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre, last month, to analyse historical data and temperature across the 11 countries of the greater Horn of Africa region that includes Rwanda, said Anthony Twahirwa, the head of forecasting division at RMA.

After deliberations, experts reached a consensus forecast for the IGAD region and the neighbouring countries – Rwanda, Tanzania and Burundi.

"El Niño is real. It doesn’t happen all the time but when it does, the heavy rains are destructive. It could come cumulatively or little but for a long time, or fall for a short time but with great intensity. In all these scenarios, the impact is bad,” Musoni said.

Preparedness

Prof. Telesphore Ndabamenye, the Rwanda Agriculture Board deputy director-general in charge of crop production and food security, said September 20 will be the latest timeline for planting for Season 2016A, adding that it was good RMA has provided the national climate outlook.

Ndabamenye said: "Although we use irrigation, most of the country is hilly and, as such, we are going to plan accordingly. We are, among others, going to step up awareness campaigns targeting farmers.”

Dr Emmanuel Hakizimana, director of vector control at Rwanda Biomedical Centre, said increased cases of malaria, as well as spates of cholera, meningitis and influenza are most likely to hit Rwandans if climate changes for worse.

Between 2010 and 2015, 94 per cent of cholera outbreaks were recorded in the districts along Lake Kivu, while 71 per cent of cholera outbreaks usually are reported in the rainy season.

Musoni called for another stakeholders’ meeting as soon as possible so that an all-inclusive response strategy is designed.

"Every concerned sector needs to sit with us so that we prepare in advance,” he said.

Twahirwa said climate watch on a 24-hour basis is possible and, if required, they can tell the forecast of a single village or sector in the country, to help advance evacuation procedures if necessary.

The Fund for Environment and Climate Change, Musoni said, has a common alert protocol for all stakeholders to use for timely intervention.

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