Saturday was World Refugee Day under the theme, ‘Ordinary people in extra ordinary circumstances.’ The refugee problems seem to persist with East Africa being a key refugee spot. The turbulent politics in the region has often compelled innocent people to sort their property and carry what they can and abandon the rest before moving to a safer area.

Right now, Kenya is hosting thousands of Somali refugees thanks to Somalia’s instability that dates back to the fall of former President Siad Barre. The life of a refugee can sometimes be too painful to fathom. For example there are Somalis who fled to Yemen for safety but recently had to go back to Somalia because the missiles being dropped on Yemen by the Saudis made Somalia seem like paradise.

More recently, Burundi’s political impasse has seen so many Burundians fleeing to Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and DR Congo. DRC itself has remained a source of refugees to East Africa. According to UNHCR there are currently over 59 million refugees in the world with the majority being victims of bad politics.

Politics remains a key determinant of why we end up producing or hosting refugees in the region. I always try my best to keep tabs on regional politics but it is no mean feat. To keep pace with things, you may need 5D glasses because each country provides a unique dimension.

You will find yourself in a maze if you assume the way things are in one EAC country is similar to what happens in another. Right now the political temperatures in most of the five countries are quite high but the climate is unique to each. Many were not keen on what was happening in Burundi until recently. They were quick to make nonsensical comparisons between Rwanda and Burundi. Burundi has had 10 years or relative stability and growth but it found itself like a deer caught in lights thanks to that Arusha accords and the interpretation of their constitution. How this crisis was handled is what tipped things over.

Rwanda on the hand has reached a critical point where what the constitution says is no longer in sync with what a section of the population desires. The president has called for debate on the issue and even gone further to call for a broader debate beyond the simplistic arguments some have fronted for and against the issue of term limits.

With Rwanda, one needs a good understanding of what 1994 was about and more importantly what the years after have meant to those living in Rwanda. The emphasis here is on those living in Rwanda for they have experienced the country’s transformation first hand, not from YouTube videos or social media posts.

Those people have genuine concerns about the future of their country. They have a checklist of what has been achieved over the years, what remains and how they think the way forward should be handled. It is pointless to brush off any side using the same lenses used on many other countries in the region or the continent.

Tanzania is also heading towards an election and a referendum on their constitution. The election is where all the excitement is with everyone keen to know who will be the country’s fifth leader after Nyerere, Mwinyi, Mkapa and Kikwete. Scores have picked nomination forms to run on the ruling party ticket while other parties are also keen to put in a good fight for the top seat.

Issues like the relationship between Zanzibar and the mainland, major corruption scandals that dogged the current government and significance of winning the hearts of the youth who are the majority are some of the dynamics to keep an eye on.

In Uganda, the former prime minister, Amama Mbabazi threw his hat in the ring in a manner of throwing a spanner in the works. Now all talk has been narrowed to him and President Museveni. At the end of the day one has to think about how issues like security, concerns of the rural population and the majority youth will influence political decisions.

Kenya is arguably the most political nation in the region. The political games in that country are always on loop. No stopping. Even though it is 2015 some are calculating for 2021 already. With Kenya, tribal mathematics, the terrorism issue and how it affects the coast and North East as well years of land conflicts are key determinants one ought to understand fully.