The political homework given to RPF cadres on 8th February 2013, was top on agenda, if not the main issue deliberated on, in RPF leaders’ retreat held this last weekend (13th – 14th June 2015).

Ever since the homework was given to the same cadres two years ago, the Rwandan political landscape has fundamentally changed with regard to the debate so much so that, the issue at this very meeting was not as intriguing as it was when the homework was handed to the same cadres.

There was no confusion or misinterpretation of facts and issues at hand. The hundreds of cadres who poured their hearts out on the issue were reading from the same script: Amend the constitution, No change come 2017.President Kagame has never asked for third term unlike what some media outlets have implied, otherwise the current debate would never have arisen in the first place.

He is on record saying he will respect the constitution. But a constitution is not a mere document but rather the will of a people.

It is not stone cast or a commandment, it is a will that changes with the circumstances and can be amended accordingly. And although he has not at this point in time accepted this will despite huge demands for him to do so, if he does he will not be violating the constitution.

He will be acceding to the democratic rights and the will of the people of Rwanda and by so doing respecting our constitution. Period. Any misinterpretation is diversionary and taking Rwandans for granted.

In fact, given the exemplary performance of President Paul Kagame, if he had requested for a third term, it would have been handed to him on a gold platter by Rwandans.

This time round, however, it is we Rwandans asking him to keep delivering on all fronts – economic, social transformation and stability – that is unprecedented in a post conflict country.

I sometimes wonder why critics of our will and wish never take a minute to comprehend our context, and end up bundling our country with other countries that are neither post-conflict, nor post-genocidal. There are many post-conflict countries that are yet to get out of the woods, and yet it is only Rwanda that is both a post-conflict and post-genocide country.

So in the recent senior RPF cadres’ retreat, our context was explained by each speaker, and emotionally so for this is to do with the lives of all of us Rwandans.

As argued in this column and ably commented on by RPF leaders, our context from Genocide against the Tutsi, an event that has defined new Rwanda, from economic to social as well as political, has informed our political homework.

The model President Kagame used to fix fundamental problems associated with Genocide are unconventional and out of academic textbooks on reconstruction. But as has been put many times, this is work in progress, and serious fears that this work in progress could be reversed were highlighted in this retreat.

Real fears

As outlined above, RPF leaders in the retreat pointed out the real fears we as a people have, fears that are borne out of heinous past, and the highest probability of these fears crystallizing in the near future.

First, the fear of recurrence of genocide is real given that the perpetrators of the same (FDLR) are protected by some external parties for reasons known to them.

They have made it very clear that, switch leadership, and these terrorists will cross borders with unimaginable consequences. They have openly confessed to the effect that, it is only President Kagame who tamed them, and can tame them.

This fear was supposed to have been allayed by defeat of these by a multinational force in DRC which defeated M23, but we now know the truth. They serve interests of external actors, who have fought our model, and are not about to relent.

President Paul Kagame is the only guarantor of our security amidst serious national threats and we Rwandans are aware.

Secondly, there is the fear that, the reconciliation process now under way will regress on his departure with consequences we can’t afford to underwrite as a country and a people.

Research has shown that, it takes generations for an optimum reconciliation model to have irreversible impact. But such reconciliation depends on the moral authority of a leader in power at the time.

Such moral authority is not transferable, negotiable, or learnt/imitated. It is inherent in the person of the leader in power.

The reconciliation model has direct and clear impact on the economy, social set-up, and political direction all of which leads to stability or even perpetual instability depending on the success of the model in place.

In our case, President Kagame’s model of reconciliation has worked beyond remotest expectations and both parties to reconciliation trusted his model.

But this model is work in progress that would certainly leave with his departure from office, two years from now.

The fears of a change in model as a result of change in leadership (without transferability of moral authority) with serious and irreversible consequences on our economic and social transformation have informed our decisions.

No external party can allay these fears, given that they lost their moral authority in 1994, and still do so in various countries.

Thirdly, there is real fear that, the new Rwanda which is a handiwork of President Kagame, will regress irreversibly on his departure.

His economic model (supply economic model) is dependent on moral authority, ingenuity, and charismatic leadership that he and he alone holds at the moment, and this (like for reconciliation) is neither transferable, negotiable, imputed nor imitated.

Considering the miraculous growth of our economy and with limited resources we can talk of, the only resource we boast is good governance and efficient utilisation of meager resources we are endowed with.

And so if the main resource we have is exemplary leadership of President Paul Kagame, how can we let go of such a resource at this point in time?

Considering that we were a failed state in 1994, and given the momentum of our growth at the moment, we agreed in this very retreat that, it would be bizarre to change the captain of a ship on an incredible course.

Post-conflict countries such as Liberia, Iraq, Libya and Somalia, which still depend on foreign institutions and resources to manage their affairs, were very informative.

Fourth, the unprecedented peace and security we enjoy in the country has depended on his security model, that he and he alone can guarantee for now.

It is still work in progress that it would be easy to reverse on change of leadership with dire consequences to lives and property, investments and therefore the growth of our country.

The threat to our peace and security as pointed out earlier is influenced by both internal as well as external factors, some of which we can’t control, such as FDLR.

These are real fears that have informed our decision, and term limits only serve to heighten these fears and will only make most of these real.

Fifth, and perhaps most important is the fact that, one can get good leaders but great/exemplary leaders emerge once in a lifetime and leaving such a leader to exit when we can afford to avoid it, is not optional.

Sixth, there are real fears that some of the huge projects which fit in our grand vision would cease to be on kagame’s departure. From Northern Corridor to Bugesera airport, all have execution time frame that far exceeds the so called term limits.

And so changing the architect of these would see them stall.  Question is, when will some or all of the above fears subside? Not certainly in two years time. They are time variant and some will take centuries to eliminate from our national conscious.

Rwanda’s real untold story

The real untold story about our country is not the BBC documentary with highly flawed and bizarre methodologies where those that fell from grace in Rwanda, as a result of their accountability flaws and are now allies of FDLR, were main contributors to this documentary.

FDLR and ISIS are similar in that, they are both ideological outfits, the former’s to exterminate the Tutsi and the latter westerners. And so asking allies of FDLR of what they think of the Genocide and Rwanda in general is akin to asking ISIS what they think of the west.

The answers would not be different.

The real ‘untold story’ about Rwanda is one the world has tried to cover up for it is a permanent scar on their conscious. That is, the inability of the west to intervene when a million of our compatriots were being killed by genocidal forces.

Although we lost 1 million of our compatriots, RPA (now RDF) was able to stop these demonic killings of Rwandans by Rwandans. Now those who watched the horrors of our genocide on their TVs are hounded by the permanent guilty so much so that, they would want to wish it away. They can’t.

Genocide and its consequences to our national fabric are with us for generations to come. This is one of the untold stories, that many in the west would not tell for it haunts them.

Double standards

The second ‘untold’ story and one we are going to live with for unforeseeable future is the threat by FDLR. These genocidal forces, as pointed out earlier, are not in DRC by accident.

They serve the interest of those powers that were party to the Genocide and are collectively guilty.

There has been a lot of rhetoric in UN Security Council about sanctions that are never executed, condemnations that are akin to window-dressing to say the least, and travel bans that end up as travel facilitation for these terrorists.

Besides, there has been miscarriage of justice in some western countries where cases against genocidal elements are dropped as simple as for petty criminals.

Regional actors have of late tried to sanitize this group and some will continue to do so. UN spends a whopping $ 1.2 billion each year to maintain 20,000 troops in DRC whose mission, it seems, is to sustain the FDLR rather than fight it.

There is no will to do so, and we don’t expect it anyway. Our fears have been confirmed and endorsed by inaction on the part of international community with regard FDLR’s sustenance in DRC.

This is the real untold story, there rest are machinations of Genocide revisionists and their cohorts. And so Rwandans are in for a long haul with this genocidal group and their supporters. This, as argued earlier, has fundamentally informed our homework.

In this very retreat, however, stories of former combatants, refugees, and rehabilitated extremists were told. These are now leaders of the same party (RPF) for which they were ‘eternal antagonists’. All leaders who spoke highlighted the miraculously turnround of our economy against all odds.

The social transformation that is visible even in the remotest corner of our country was also highlighted.

And so leaders did the rational thing. Endorse the proposed change of the constitution and request President Kagame to continue with his exemplary leadership that is of envy for most Africans. That is democracy.

Professor Nshuti Manasseh.

Economist and Financial Expert.

Email: nshutim@gmail.com

To be continued…