By the time you read this, there may or may not have been a real or simulated coup d’état in Burundi. That is because another summit on the ongoing crisis in that country will have taken place in Dar es Salaam, the capital of Tanzania, and we know that the last time President Nkurunziza of Burundi was there a real or staged coup took place back at home.

That was on May 13. The abortive summit was called to discuss the crisis in Burundi, with regional leaders expected to take a position regarding Nkurunziza’s quest for a third term.

As such, much was riding on that summit. The EAC leaders were expected to take the lead, with the African Union, the EU, and the United States expected to endorse their outcome of that summit as the position of the international community.

After such a process the pressure would then pile on Nkurunziza. He understood that the likely decision out of the summit would be counter to his ambition, with many likely to interpret that his third term bid was against the letter and spirit of the Arusha Accords, representing a fundamental violation given the efforts that went into the negotiations that brought Burundi out of what had become a permanent crisis in the 1990s.

For obvious reasons, therefore, Nkurunziza was not about to let such a process play itself out. He, more than anyone else, would benefit most from an abortive summit of that sort.

That is why many argue that what transpired in Bujumbura that fateful week was nothing short of theatre. But it was no fun and games for all. It appears that a couple of senior military officers may have been duped into thinking that it was the real thing, only to find their hands caught in the cookie jar.

One of the Generals refuses to defend himself in court without the presence of would be co-conspirators, the Army Chief of Staff and the then Minister of Defence.

However, the Minister is nowhere to be seen and is now rumoured to have fled to exile, along with his entire family, to a European capital. Meanwhile, the army chief denies everything and considers himself a hero for having foiled the coup and restored "constitutional order.”

And then there was the master magician. The details of how President Nkurunziza was able to make his way back to power is nothing short of mythical, with some pointing to the power of prayer given his bona fides as a born again Christian.

But if it’s true that the whole thing was stage-managed then it must be considered a grand escape – ever heard of Houdini, the illusionist? – given what was likely awaiting Nkurunziza during and after the Dar Summit.

So what would be President Nkurunziza’s great political escape? The first thing he pulled from his bag of tricks was not a rabbit. Instead, he chose to threaten demonstrators, saying that he would search for them in their houses before they reach the streets.

Not a very smart move. Anyone remember the great Colonel, Muammar Gaddafi? Back then, before the no-fly zone grounded his air force and laser guided missiles turned his 1,000 armoured tanks into charcoal, Gaddafi had threatened the people of Benghazi that he would pull them out of their houses like rats.

This particular statement was like the gift that keeps on giving and became the central theme upon which a United Nations Resolution under the Responsibility to Protect doctrine called upon any member of  the international community to ‘do what is necessary to ensure the protection of civilians.” We know how that ended.

Most importantly, Nkurunziza’s threats fell on deaf ears. Just days later the demonstrators turned up with even more resolve to remove him; calling the events of the coup a "montage,” they argued that all the coup plotters had done was to disrupt their movement.

It was time to go nuclear, to rally the tribe. The government spokesperson was reported to have told a UN Diplomat that the protesters were Tutsis. Why? Because, he said, ‘Tutsis don’t want Hutu leadership.’

To counter this, the Forces for National Liberation (FNL), one of the leading opposition political parties that in the past used to openly championed Hutu liberation, organised massive rallies in suburbs (quartiers) that were historically identifiable with the Hutu. (During the war period Bujumbura quartiers were segregated along ethnic lines).

Thus, the ace of hearts of African politics also failed. It was time to shift to a language that super powers understand: terrorism. Now, Nkurunziza was predicting that Al Shabaab about to launch an attack on Bujumbura.

Of course some grenades get tossed into the market, people are killed. But the terrorist outfit’s spokesperson quickly denies responsibility and insists that they have no plans to attack Burundi now or in the near future.

Just yesterday the Dar summit was slated to ‘resume.’ The question, therefore, is whether the EAC presidents will finally pull the plug on Nkurunziza or whether we should expect yet another ‘coup’ in Bujumbura on May 31.