ABIDJAN – An early morning downpour here in Abidjan has failed to cool the political heat in the corridors of Hotel Ivoire where the African Development Bank’s 50th annual meetings are taking place and the voting process of the Bank’s new President is already underway, in closed-door sessions.

The New Times reporter analyses the chances of those vying to replace Rwanda’s Dr Donald Kaberuka.

This is going to be a tight race, he says.

From sources close to the candidates, it’s between Zimbabwean Thomas Sakala and Nigerian Dr Akinwumi A. Adesina.

The factors at play are that Sakala has the support of the entire Southern African Development Community (SADC) having been voted as the bloc’s sole candidate out of the four that had initially showed interest in the position.

SADC has 14 member countries with different voting powers in line with their shareholding in the Bank and they have South Africa, a major shareholder of the Bank, that is likely to boost Sakala’s chances at the Presidency.

Meanwhile, Nigerian Adesina can count on the fact that his country has the single largest shareholding in the Bank, which is likely to boost his points in the voting process.

The problem with Adesina’s candidature is that it lacks the backing of the Western bloc of ECOWAS because there are two other candidates from the region – Sierra Leon’s Samura M. W. Kamara and Mali’s Boubacar Sidibe.

So in this vote, ECOWAS is a divided bloc.

Does it mean Sakala will take the day? Quite uncertain, at least according to two journalists from SADC who interviewed him yesterday – they he’s not expecting a straight victory.

Why?

It’s mainly because he’s Zimbabwean. There are two voting blocs, the Governors of the African member countries (regional) and those of non-African members of the Bank.

African votes count for up to 60 per cent of the total votes and the non-members who include donor countries in the West and Asia have 40 per cent.

The winner must have at least 50.01 per cent of the total vote but with the majority coming from the African vote, a mandate which is very important given that the Bank is African.

Now Sakala might quite likely get the African mandate but his uphill task are the non-regional members, countries in the West that have an influential say in the Bank because of their investment.

However, analysts here are saying that Sakala could be lucky to win some of the not-so-political non-members such as Japan which could boost his chances to get support from both Africa and outside.

What’s certain is that every vote will count.

There are about five rounds of the voting process aimed at eliminating weaker candidates and by 2p.m this afternoon, we shall have fewer candidates, two or three of them at most.

If the governors find it too hard to choose between the Zimbabwean and South African candidates, then they could end up handing AfDB its first ever female president.

Cabo Verdean Cristina Duarte, the only female candidate in a field of eight contenders, is seen as the most neutral candidate of the pack. She has the credentials and the Bank is under pressure to give women a chance at leading.

And she could easily appeal to both the African and non African votes.

East Africa, where the outgoing President hails from, is also likely to play a major role in who becomes the next AfDB President. Will they support the Ethiopian candidate whose country is geographically located in the Eastern African region?

Rwanda’s Minister for Finance and Economic Planning, Claver Gatete, who’s one of the governors of the AfDB, is here and among those to make that choice.

Whatever the outcome, may the best candidate win.

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WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?

Akinwumi A. Adesina

Nigerian by nationality, he was born in February 6, 1960.

He’s currently Nigeria’s minister for agriculture and rural development. He holds a PhD and Masters degree in Agricultural Economics from Purdue University, US.

He obtained First Class Honours bachelors degree in Agricultural Economics from University of Ife, Nigeria.

Sufian Ahmed

Born on May 10, 1958, Ahmed is Ethiopia’s current minister for finance and economic development.

Previously, he served as the commissioner of Ethiopian customs authority.

Ahmed has a Masters degree in Economic Planning and Development.

Jaloul Ayed

Born in February 1951, he’s a former Tunisian minister for finance, who also served as vice-president of Citibank.

He’s currently the president of MED Confederation, an alliance which aims to promote socioeconomic cooperation in the Mediterranean region.

He has a Master’s degree in Economics from University of Maryland.

Kordje Bedoumra

The Chadian candidate was born in 1951.

He’s his country’s current minister for finance and budget.

He holds a degree in Civil Telecommunications Engineering from the Ecole Nationale Supérieure de Télécommunication, Paris, France, obtained in 1979.

Cristina Duarte

Born in 1962, Duarte is the only female candidate. AfDB has never had a female president in its 50 years of existence.

The Cabo Verdean is her country’s current minister for finance and planning.

She has a Masters in International Management.

Samura M. W. Kamara

The Sierra Leonean was born in 1951.

He is the current minister for foreign affairs and international cooperation of his country after previously serving as minister for finance and economic planning.

He has a Bachelors, Masters and PhD in Economics.

Thomas Sakala

Born in 1955, Sakara is Zimbabwe’s candidate for the top AfDB job.

He was an employee of the African Development Bank until October 2014 when he retired from the bank’s service.

He has also previously served as the AfDB vice-president for country and regional programmes.

He has a Masters degree in Economics.

Boubacar Sidibe

The Malian national was born in 1952 and is the current Vice-President, Islamic Development Bank, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Previously, he was the managing director, Shelter Afrique in Nairobi, Kenya.

He has a Masters degree in Engineering.