The polarity tactic is number 28 in Robert Greene’s 33 strategies of war and it states that, give your rivals enough rope to hang themselves. For some years, Uganda’s President Museveni has indirectly been giving his former Prime Minister, Amama Mbabazi a rope and on Friday, it finally hanged him. 

President Museveni is fully in command of Ugandan politics, a fact many a member of the opposition stubbornly refuse to acknowledge.

But if a man manages to spend 28 years in power, then he must be extremely good at something that his detractors aren’t. In Museveni’s case, he’s good not at just one but many political tactics that have seen him serve longer than any other President in Uganda’s post-independence history.

Since 2001, the general political buzz has been that Amama Mbabazi, who has served Museveni’s cause since the 1960s, is being groomed for the presidency.

A lawyer by profession, Mbabazi is a smart politician and whether he believed the hype regarding his political clout or not, it’s hard to tell because he continued to paint a picture of a loyal servant of both the president and the ruling party, NRM.

He was openly envied by some of his peers in cabinet because they supposed that he enjoyed too much favour from the president. In the media, he was often described as the president’s ‘blue eyed boy’ or ‘super minister’ for the number of important cabinet positions he held at the same time.

Meanwhile, the buzz that he could be the next president kept growing, especially after his appointment as premier in 2011. From then, the political gossip started working against him.

The rope

Having served in all the important positions in the country, Mbabazi’s appointment to the post of prime minister was a tricky one, at least to keen political analysts.

The question was after there, where next? Certainly not below, only way was up and its then that political gossipers determined that Mbabazi will stand in 2016.

The problem is, no one knew whether his boss would seek re-election or not and it would be dangerous for any party member, especially one of Mbabazi’s status and influence, to be linked to the position when the chairman is still serving.

Unfortunately, that’s exactly what has been happening. There has been hullaballoo from all corners reporting alleged mobilization activities by ‘Mbabazi supporters’ laying the ground for his 2016 bid.

Mbabazi himself didn’t help these matters. Whenever he would be asked to clarify on the speculations, he would cunningly dodge answering the questions — a costly maneuver.

During an NRM party meeting earlier this year, a member moved a motion in which she endorsed the sole candidature of President Museveni ahead of the 2016 presidential campaign which was supported by majority of MPs.

Mbabazi gave himself away when he refused to support that endorsement arguing that it was against the party’s constitution.

But in truth, the development meant, NRM would not have party elections to choose a candidate for 2016 campaigns something that would block Mbabazi and others with undeclared presidential ambitions.

Pulling the noose

A few weeks ago Mbabazi went to his home area in Kanungu district to officiate at the youth day celebrations. While there, his home supporters handed him a spear and shield a symbolic send-off to join the 2016 presidential battle. A song praising Mbabazi’s name was even unveiled."In our culture, when we join a battle, we join to win,” said Mbabazi in his local language.

On return to Kampala, inside sources say that Mbabazi was summoned to Statehouse where he was asked to explain his recent activities but he stubbornly kept silent. He was then asked to resign his position as party secretary general; again, he refused saying he was voted by members.

The president was upset. He ordered the withdrawal of his military escorts and literally left the Prime minister ‘naked’ security-wise. Those in the corridors of power say they could clearly read the writing on the wall.

On Friday, a brief letter signed by President Museveni was released indicating that he had fired his prime minister. Shortly after, Mbabazi released a statement congratulating Ruhakana Rugunda, Uganda’s new prime minister.

What happens in Uganda after this will be very interesting to watch.

Technically, Mbabazi is still the ruling party’s secretary general though his haters want him removed; will he form a new party? Will he stand? Can he win? Are his days in politics over? Is Museveni still in control?

There are simply too many questions but in Uganda, most people expect Mbabazi to now openly declare his true plans now that he’s no longer serving government. Will he?