KIGALI IS still settling down after the just concluded African Development Bank meetings. It was one of those important events that raised much optimism, even as it presented a harsh mirror for us to re-appraise the current continental state. 

The harsher side of it noted the fragile state of the continent. 

A report presented at the meeting, Ending Conflict and Building Peace in Africa: A call to action, observed how "rapid urbanisation, youth unemployment, inequality and social exclusion, new natural resource discoveries and a changing climate all have the potential to place African societies under considerable strain.”

These challenges continue to define our continental profile, even as Africa begins to rise. But, for the sake of appraising the harsher side, let’s take climate change.

The African continent is likely to warm this century, with the drier sub-tropical regions warming more than the moist tropics.

In its 2007 assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that "Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of ‘multiple stresses’, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity.”

Rainfall patterns will shift as the hydrological cycle becomes more intense. Annual rainfall is likely to decrease throughout much of the region.

Current adaptations of food producers to cope with climatic variability may become inadequate, while agricultural production may fall, particularly in semi-arid regions.

This means that the areas suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and crop yields are all expected to decrease, with serious consequences for food security.

The grim IPCC prognosis also predicts that existing water shortages will be aggravated, where new nations may join the list of those experiencing shortages.

We already know what is likely to happen. A United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report shows how the conflict in Darfur in the Sudan has in part been driven by climate change and environmental degradation.

The advancement of the Sahara desert, up to more than a mile every year by 2007, coupled with rainfall decreasing by up to 30 percent resulted in tensions between farmers and herders over disappearing pasture and declining water-holes in Darfur. Conflict in the region persists.   

As the above noted research attests, effects of climate change are the latest in a series of environmental sparks of human conflict, along with those of the more traditional model such as drought, desertification, land degradation, failing water supplies, deforestation and fisheries depletion.

So, what to do? 

Or, to put it more starkly, what is the point of harped economic advancement when conflict looms with the very real possibility that all achievements in terms of human development on the continent thus far may eventually come to naught?

The report, Ending Conflict and Building Peace in Africa: A call to action, was crafted by a High Level Panel on Fragile States established by the AfDB and headed by the Liberian President, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.

Among the Panel’s recommendations was a call for a strong emphasis within the development agenda in Africa on addressing potentially disruptive economic, social and environmental change—applying not just to states currently seen as fragile, but right across the continent.

The Panel also noted the need to anchor African states in a network of supportive partnerships; including drawing on the sources of resilience found in African societies, in the private sector, civil society and within communities.

As I write this, and coming right on the heels of the Kigali meeting, a high-level conference dubbed, Africa Rising: Building to the Future, hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Government of Mozambique is being held in Maputo.  

The conference aims to discuss the challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa and build upon the economic gains thus far achieved.

It goes to show the seriousness with which Africa’s potential is being taken, and must relentlessly be emphasized.

The writer is a commentator on local and regional issues

Twitter: @gituram